Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.009941 0.011227 0.012619 0.014237 0.016066 0.018070 0.020435
2025-12-07 0.007591 0.009289 0.011280 0.013787 0.016862 0.020517 0.025197
2025-12-14 0.006351 0.008210 0.010511 0.013572 0.017544 0.022535 0.029298
2025-12-21 0.005403 0.007304 0.009764 0.013186 0.017837 0.023952 0.032634
2025-12-28 0.004976 0.006993 0.009708 0.013636 0.019192 0.026797 0.038044
2026-01-04 0.004570 0.006650 0.009548 0.013891 0.020260 0.029294 0.043155
2026-01-11 0.004253 0.006389 0.009460 0.014213 0.021415 0.031974 0.048730
2026-01-18 0.003870 0.005985 0.009117 0.014109 0.021907 0.033690 0.052980
2026-01-25 0.003564 0.005663 0.008858 0.014094 0.022508 0.035590 0.057640
2026-02-01 0.003247 0.005294 0.008489 0.013863 0.022733 0.036896 0.061434
2026-02-08 0.003037 0.005074 0.008331 0.013946 0.023456 0.039033 0.066740
2026-02-15 0.002811 0.004805 0.008070 0.013831 0.023828 0.040604 0.071201
2026-02-22 0.002685 0.004698 0.008072 0.014171 0.025015 0.043670 0.078572
2026-03-01 0.002435 0.004357 0.007649 0.013738 0.024822 0.044342 0.081760
2026-03-08 0.002248 0.004109 0.007366 0.013524 0.024989 0.045642 0.086175
2026-03-15 0.002054 0.003832 0.007008 0.013139 0.024805 0.046283 0.089393
2026-03-22 0.001998 0.003803 0.007097 0.013587 0.026207 0.049950 0.098696
2026-03-29 0.001919 0.003725 0.007085 0.013842 0.027255 0.053025 0.107094
2026-04-05 0.001854 0.003668 0.007108 0.014162 0.028453 0.056475 0.116528
2026-04-12 0.001742 0.003511 0.006925 0.014058 0.028793 0.058254 0.122686
2026-04-19 0.001650 0.003384 0.006791 0.014043 0.029309 0.060417 0.129817
2026-04-26 0.001541 0.003216 0.006563 0.013813 0.029357 0.061620 0.134989
2026-05-03 0.001473 0.003126 0.006488 0.013897 0.030070 0.064261 0.143511